How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 20?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how many ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz during one specific week in July 2026. The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, and it is one of the most important shipping lanes in the world, especially for oil tankers. The question has four possible answers: fewer than 50 ships, 50 to 74 ships, 75 to 99 ships, or 100 or more ships for the full seven-day period. The market settles based on official data from IMF Portwatch, a shipping traffic tracker run by the International Monetary Fund, covering July 20 through July 26, 2026. It counts container ships, tankers, bulk cargo ships, and a few other commercial vessel types, but only those that Portwatch itself records. The bracket that matches the final reported count wins. If Portwatch has not published all the data within 14 days after the week ends, the market resolves on whatever data exists at that point. One relevant headline mentions John Bolton calling Iran's Revolutionary Guards the dominant force in Iran and urging US action against them. This is notable because tensions involving Iran directly affect shipping confidence in the Strait of Hormuz. The other headlines, covering Sri Lanka politics, the Malaysian ringgit, and Rohingya repatriation, do not appear to connect to Hormuz shipping traffic. Overall, the provided news gives only a thin signal, so watching for any Iran-US diplomatic or military developments would be the most important thing to track. The biggest challenge is that shipping traffic through Hormuz can shift quickly based on geopolitical events, and those events are genuinely hard to anticipate. A diplomatic flare-up between Iran and the US or Gulf states could suppress traffic fast. Conversely, a calm week could see normal volumes. The market currently gives the highest probability, around 49%, to the lowest bracket of fewer than 50 ships, which suggests traders expect traffic to be running well below historical norms, but the remaining 51% is spread across higher counts, reflecting real disagreement.

The odds right now

• <5037%
• 50-7435%
• 75-9930%
• 100-1244%
• 125+3%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 26, 2026

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 20, 2026, through July 26, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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