Largest private company end of August?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking which company will be worth the most, in private markets, by the end of August 2026. A private company is one that has not listed its shares on a public stock exchange, so its value is estimated through secondary market trading rather than a live stock price. The three contenders here are Anthropic, OpenAI, and Databricks, all major AI companies. The question is simply: which one carries the highest price tag among private investors on that date? The winner is whichever company has the highest valuation recorded on a platform called NPM (a private securities data service run by SecondMarket) on August 31, 2026. NPM publishes prices once per trading day, so that single data point on that date decides it. One important edge case: if any of these companies goes public via an IPO before August 31, it is locked out of winning, because only the last private valuation before the IPO counts, not any post-listing price. An acquisition that removes a company as an independent entity works the same way. None of the provided news headlines relate to Anthropic, OpenAI, Databricks, or private market valuations. There is nothing in the recent news to point to here. The kind of development that would matter is a new funding round for any of these companies, a reported valuation change on secondary markets, or news of an IPO filing. The market prices Anthropic at 96%, so the main uncertainty is not a close race between equals but rather the small chance something unexpected changes the order. That could be a large new funding round that pushes OpenAI's valuation sharply higher, a secondary market repricing, or one of these companies filing for an IPO before August 31, which would freeze its valuation and potentially remove it from contention. Over a year of time remains, and AI company valuations have moved dramatically in short periods, so even a heavily lopsided market carries real residual uncertainty.

The odds right now

• Anthropic96%
• OpenAI3%
• Anduril1%
• Canva1%
• Databricks1%
• Lambda1%
• Neuralink1%
• Perplexity1%
• Stripe1%
• Epic Games1%
• Kraken1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 1, 2026

This market will resolve to the listed company with the largest private market valuation on August 31, 2026. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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