Lowest temperature in Tokyo on July 22?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how cool will Tokyo get overnight on July 22, 2026? Specifically, it is asking for the single coldest temperature reading of the entire day at Haneda Airport, rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius. July 22 is deep summer in Tokyo, so the 'low' here is the nighttime or early-morning temperature, not a cold winter reading. The three options are 27°C, 28°C, and 29°C, which in Fahrenheit is roughly 81°F to 84°F, so this is a warm tropical night either way. The market settles based on the lowest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station on July 22, 2026, as shown on the Weather Underground website. Whatever the coldest single reading of that day turns out to be, the option whose range contains that number wins. The data is read to whole degrees only, so 27.8°C would count as 27°C. The result is locked in once the first reading for July 23 appears on the site, after which no corrections to July 22 data are considered. None of the provided news is relevant to this market. The only headline is a horoscope piece, which has no connection to Tokyo weather. To track this market meaningfully, you would want to watch Tokyo summer weather forecasts as July 22, 2026 approaches, particularly any signals about heat waves, tropical nights, or unusually cool spells driven by rain or wind patterns. Weather one year out is genuinely unpredictable, even for meteorologists. Tokyo's summer nights are typically warm and humid, which is why all three options cluster tightly between 27°C and 29°C, but the exact low on any single night depends on cloud cover, wind, rainfall, and whether a typhoon or weather front passes nearby. The market currently leans toward 28°C at 48%, but a single unusual weather event could easily shift the result by a degree or two in either direction.

The odds right now

• 28°C51%
• 27°C29%
• 29°C12%
• 30°C3%
• 26°C1%
• 25°C1%
• 24°C1%
• 31°C1%
• 32°C or higher0%
• 23°C0%
• 22°C or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 22, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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