Lowest temperature in Miami on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how cool will Miami get overnight on July 21, 2026? Specifically, it asks what the single lowest temperature reading of that day will be at Miami International Airport, measured in whole degrees Fahrenheit. The overnight low is what matters here, not the daytime high. The three options on the table are 80-81°F, 82-83°F, and 84-85°F, which is a narrow band reflecting that Miami in late July barely cools down at all. The market settles based on the lowest temperature recorded at Miami International Airport on July 21, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground's history page for that station. Whatever the coldest single reading of that day is, the market resolves to whichever two-degree range contains it. The reading must be in whole-degree Fahrenheit. The result is locked in once the first temperature reading for July 22 is published, after which no corrections to July 21 data will count. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. Since the event is over a year away, the key things to watch closer to the date would be seasonal weather outlooks for South Florida, any forecasts about Atlantic Ocean temperatures, and whether La Nina or El Nino conditions are expected, as those patterns can nudge Miami's summer temperatures slightly. The core challenge is that a two-degree window is extremely narrow, and small random factors, a brief cloud, a passing shower, wind direction at 3am, can shift the overnight low by a degree or two in any direction. The market currently leans toward 82-83°F at 39%, reflecting historical patterns for Miami in late July, but none of the three options is a sure thing. Weather at this precision, more than a year out, is essentially not forecastable with confidence.

The odds right now

• 82-83°F87%
• 80-81°F29%
• 78-79°F5%
• 76-77°F1%
• 74-75°F1%
• 73°F or below0%
• 84-85°F0%
• 86-87°F0%
• 88-89°F0%
• 90-91°F0%
• 92°F or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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