Lowest temperature in Miami on July 22?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how cool will Miami get overnight on July 22, 2026? Specifically, it wants to pin down the single lowest temperature recorded that day at Miami International Airport. A result of 82-83°F means it stays quite warm even at its coolest point, while 78-79°F means there was a noticeably cooler dip, which is on the lower end of what Miami typically sees in late July. The market settles based on the lowest temperature reading logged at Miami International Airport (station KMIA) on July 22, 2026, pulled from Weather Underground. Whatever single whole-number degree reading is the coldest for the entire day, the range that contains it wins. The data is locked in once the first reading from July 23 appears on that site, so very late corrections to July 22 readings would not be counted after that cutoff. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of update that would matter here is a long-range seasonal forecast for South Florida in late July 2026, or an unusual weather pattern signal, such as an abnormal cold front or a tropical system, that could push temperatures outside their normal range for that time of year. Miami in late July is famously consistent, which is actually why this is still tricky: the difference between the three leading ranges is just a few degrees, and small factors like cloud cover, sea breeze timing, or overnight humidity can push the low in either direction. The market currently leans toward 82-83°F, reflecting Miami's typical warm summer nights, but nearly a quarter of the probability sits on 80-81°F. The main genuine uncertainty is that late July nights in Miami cluster tightly, making the exact floor hard to call.

The odds right now

• 82-83°F40%
• 80-81°F28%
• 78-79°F16%
• 84-85°F10%
• 76-77°F8%
• 74-75°F2%
• 86-87°F1%
• 72-73°F1%
• 88-89°F1%
• 90°F or higher1%
• 71°F or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 22, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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