Lowest temperature in Paris on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the coldest temperature be in Paris on July 21, 2026? Specifically, it asks whether the overnight low that night will be 13°C or 12°C. To picture it: 13°C is about 55°F, a cool summer night where you might want a light jacket. The market is not about the daytime high or an average. It is only about the single coldest reading recorded that day at one specific airport weather station just north of Paris. The market settles based on one number: the lowest temperature logged at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport weather station on July 21, 2026, as reported by the Weather Underground website. The reading is rounded to a whole degree Celsius. It cannot officially close until the first data point for July 22 appears on that page, confirming the full day is recorded. Any corrections to the data made before that cutoff count. After that cutoff, corrections are ignored, even if the official record later changes. There is no relevant recent news provided for this market. The one headline available appears to be about a telecom or regulatory topic and has no connection to Paris weather. The kind of news that would actually matter here is medium-range weather forecast updates for Paris in late July 2026, which are not yet available this far in advance. July overnight lows in Paris are fairly predictable in a general sense, which is why the market is priced so heavily toward 13°C at 99%. The main uncertainty is simply whether something unusual happens: a passing cold front, a clear calm night that allows extra cooling, or a heat wave that keeps nights warmer than expected. Weather forecasts become meaningfully reliable only about 7 to 10 days out, so until we are close to that date, there is genuine randomness that no one can eliminate.

The odds right now

• 13°C100%
• 12°C0%
• 10°C or below0%
• 11°C0%
• 14°C0%
• 15°C0%
• 16°C0%
• 17°C0%
• 18°C0%
• 19°C0%
• 20°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.