Lowest temperature in London on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how cold will London get overnight on July 21, 2026? Specifically, it wants the single lowest temperature reading of the whole day at London City Airport, measured in whole degrees Celsius. A result of 15°C means the coldest point of that day was 15°C, roughly the temperature of a cool room. The three options, 14°C, 15°C, and 16°C, cover a range from a noticeably cool night to a mild one, all typical for a London summer. The market settles based on one specific number: the lowest temperature recorded at London City Airport (station code EGLC) on July 21, 2026, as shown on the Weather Underground website. It reads to the nearest whole degree, so 14.7°C would count as 14°C. The data is checked only until the first reading of July 22 is published. After that, even if the record is later corrected, it will not change the outcome. There is no cancellation clause to worry about here. None of the provided news headlines relate to London weather or any climate event that would affect this market. No relevant recent news was provided. The kind of update that would actually matter here is a short-range weather forecast for London around July 21, 2026, or an unusual heat or cold pattern being tracked by meteorologists for that period. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days ahead, and this date is roughly a year away. The three options are separated by just one degree each, which is a very narrow range. Even the best forecasts struggle to nail the overnight low to within one degree that far out. The market currently leans toward 15°C at 57%, but historical July lows in London vary enough that any of the three options could reasonably happen. The closeness of the options means a small shift in conditions changes everything.

The odds right now

• 15°C55%
• 16°C23%
• 14°C22%
• 17°C2%
• 13°C2%
• 12°C0%
• 18°C0%
• 20°C or higher0%
• 10°C or below0%
• 11°C0%
• 19°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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