Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how close the Minnesota Democratic Senate primary race will be on August 11, 2026, specifically whether the front-runner, Flanagan, wins by a wide or narrow margin. The gap between first and second place tells you whether this was a comfortable win or a tight contest. A larger margin means Flanagan pulled away clearly from the second-place finisher; a smaller margin means the race was competitive. The three brackets on offer are: Flanagan wins by 10-15 percentage points, by 5-10 points, or by fewer than 5 points. The market settles based on the official final vote count published by the Minnesota Secretary of State after the August 11, 2026 primary. The margin is calculated by subtracting the second-place candidate's vote percentage from Flanagan's. The market uses the official count, so it stays open if there is a recount. One edge case worth noting: if results are still not confirmed by November 30, 2026, the market resolves to a catch-all "Other" outcome rather than any of the listed margin brackets. None of the recent headlines provided relate to the Minnesota Democratic Senate primary. No relevant news was given for this specific race. The kind of development worth watching for would be new polling, major candidate endorsements, campaign fundraising reports, or news about who else is running against Flanagan in the primary. The primary is still over a year away, which is the biggest source of uncertainty here. The field of candidates is not fully set, endorsements and money can shift momentum, and no reliable polling likely exists yet. It is also hard to predict turnout in primaries, which can change margins dramatically. The market currently leans toward a Flanagan win in the 10-15% range, but that reflects very early sentiment, not hard evidence. A lot can change before August 2026.

The odds right now

• Flanagan 10–15%-6.6 pts (1w)35%
• Flanagan 5–10%-19.5 pts (1w)22%
• Flanagan <5%-22.0 pts (1w)19%
• Flanagan 15–20%-31.5 pts (1w)11%
• Craig <5%-31.9 pts (1w)7%
• Flanagan 20%+-33.1 pts (1w)5%
• Craig 5–10%-42.4 pts (1w)3%
• Craig 10–15%-33.3 pts (1w)2%
• Craig 15–20%-40.5 pts (1w)2%
• Craig 20%+-38.0 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 11, 2026

Primary elections in Minnesota are scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate Primary. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.