Minnesota Governor Republican Primary Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking which Republican candidate will win the party's primary election for Governor of Minnesota in August 2026. A Yes for Mike Lindell means he gets more Republican votes than Lisa Demuth and wins the nomination. A Yes for Lisa Demuth means the opposite. Whoever wins this primary becomes the Republican candidate who then runs in the general election against other parties in November 2026. The market settles based on the official vote results from the Minnesota Republican Primary on August 11, 2026. Whichever candidate wins that vote, including any runoff if needed, is the answer. The result is confirmed using the first official announcement from the Minnesota Republican Party, or a clear consensus from major news organizations. One important edge case: if the primary does not happen at all for any reason, the market resolves as 'Other', not as either candidate. None of the recent headlines provided relate to the Minnesota Republican governor's race. There is no relevant news to summarize here. The kind of developments worth watching for would be new polling from Minnesota, major endorsements from within the state Republican Party, campaign fundraising reports, or either candidate making news that could shift voter opinion before the August 2026 primary. This race is genuinely close. The market prices Lindell at roughly 52% and Demuth at 46%, which is nearly a coin flip. Mike Lindell is nationally known but controversial, and name recognition cuts both ways in a primary. Lisa Demuth is the current Minnesota House Speaker, giving her a strong base within the state party. Primary elections are notoriously hard to poll accurately, turnout is unpredictable, and over a year remains before voting day, leaving plenty of time for the race to shift significantly.

The odds right now

• Mike Lindell+3.0 pts (1w)53%
• Lisa Demuth+1.0 pts (1w)46%
• Kendall Qualls-6.0 pts (1w)1%
• Scott Jensen0%
• Jeff Johnson0%
• Patrick Knight0%
• Brad Kohler0%
• Chris Madel0%
• Phil Parrish0%
• Kristin Robbins0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 11, 2026

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Minnesota, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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