Moscow air traffic suspended by...?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether all three of Moscow's main airports will be shut down to flights at the same time, before a given deadline. The three airports are Sheremetyevo, Domodedovo, and Vnukovo. A Yes means Russian authorities officially suspended both takeoffs and landings at all three simultaneously, even if only briefly. A No means that never happened, or that the shutdown was incomplete, covering fewer than all three airports. The market resolves Yes if Russian authorities issue official flight restrictions closing all three Moscow airports to both arrivals and departures at the same moment, at any point before the deadline. The restrictions can come as one combined order or separate notices, as long as they overlap in time across all three airports. The main source is official Russian government or aviation authority communications, but strong consensus reporting from credible outlets can also count. The deadline for the July 31 option is July 31, and for the August 31 option it is August 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time. None of the provided news headlines relate to this market. There is no recent reporting here about Moscow airports, Russian aviation restrictions, or any event that would trigger such a shutdown. The kind of development worth watching for would be a military incident near Moscow, a drone attack, or a major security event that has historically prompted Russia to temporarily close its airspace around the capital. The core difficulty is that this market depends on a rare, unpredictable event. All-three-airport shutdowns in Moscow have happened before, typically in response to drone attacks or security threats, but they are hard to forecast because they depend on events that can unfold with almost no warning. The market prices the August 31 deadline at 74%, reflecting that participants see meaningful but not certain risk over the next several weeks. The main honest uncertainty is simply whether such a triggering event occurs, not a close analytical debate between two sides.

The odds right now

• August 3176%
• July 3134%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russian government or aviation authorities suspend departures and arrivals at all three of the following Moscow airports at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The relevant airports are: - Sheremetyevo (SVO); - Domodedovo (DME); and - Vnukovo (VKO). Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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