Precipitation in NYC in July?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how much rain and other precipitation will fall in New York City during the entire month of July 2026. The measurement comes from one specific location: Central Park. There are three possible outcomes: less than 5 inches but more than 4 (moderate), 5 to 6 inches (higher), or more than 6 inches (a very wet July). A 'Yes' for any bracket simply means the final total lands inside that range. At the end of July 2026, NOAA will publish an official monthly precipitation total for Central Park. Whatever number appears on their climate summary page for that station decides the outcome. The number is measured to two decimal places, so 5.00 inches would count as the 5-6 inch bracket, not the 4-5 inch bracket, because the rules say a value exactly on a boundary goes to the higher range. No later corrections to the data will change the result once it is finalized. There is no specific recent news available that relates to this market. Because the market covers July 2026, the most relevant things to watch for closer to that time would be seasonal forecasts from NOAA or the Climate Prediction Center, which sometimes give a broad outlook for whether a summer month is expected to be wetter or drier than average for the Northeast. Monthly rainfall totals are genuinely hard to forecast, even for meteorologists. A single large storm in one week can push the total from one bracket to a completely different one. The market is spread across three brackets with no single one above 44%, which reflects real uncertainty rather than a clear favorite. July in NYC historically averages around 4 to 5 inches, but any given year can land well above or below that, making this a question where weather's natural randomness plays the biggest role.

The odds right now

• 5-6"+14.0 pts (1w)36%
• 4-5"-9.6 pts (1w)30%
• >6"-2.7 pts (1w)28%
• 3-4"-26.8 pts (1w)1%
• <2"-0.4 pts (1w)0%
• 2-3"-0.4 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between July 1 and July 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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