Precipitation in Seattle in July?: What It Means & How It Resolves

What you need to know

This market is asking: how much rain will fall in Seattle during July 2026? Seattle is famously rainy, but July is actually its driest month of the year, so the real question is whether July stays bone-dry as usual or sees an unusual amount of rainfall. The three buckets are: under half an inch (very dry, the norm for Seattle in July), between one and one-and-a-half inches (a wetter-than-normal July), and between two and two-and-a-half inches (an unusually rainy July). At the end of July 2026, NOAA, the U.S. government's official weather agency, will publish the total precipitation recorded for the Seattle city area for that month. The market then settles into whichever bracket that final number falls into. If a reading lands exactly on a boundary between two brackets, it counts toward the higher one. The first official NOAA figure is what counts; any later corrections to that number are ignored. No human judgment is involved, just the official NOAA report. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. Because the event is July 2026, weather forecasts that far out do not yet exist in any meaningful form. The kind of news that would matter closer to the time includes seasonal outlooks from NOAA or unusual climate patterns like a strong El Niño or La Niña signal, which can shift Pacific Northwest summer precipitation up or down. The main uncertainty here is that July in Seattle is historically very dry, which is why the market prices the under-0.5-inch outcome at 87%. The real question is simply whether something unusual happens, and unusual weather events are hard to predict, especially more than a year out. There are no reliable long-range forecasts for a specific month this far ahead. The brackets for 1 to 1.5 inches and 2 to 2.5 inches also leave a notable gap, so a reading between 0.5 and 1 inch has no bracket at all, which is worth noticing.

The odds right now

<0.5"+51.5 pts (1w)86%
0.5-1"-33.2 pts (1w)7%
1-1.5"-21.5 pts (1w)7%
1.5-2"-22.7 pts (1w)5%
2-2.5"-30.4 pts (1w)5%
>3"-33.0 pts (1w)2%
2.5-3"-30.2 pts (1w)1%

Price history

<0.5"

86%+37.5%

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Seattle between July 1 and July 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for July 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of July 2026. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

<0.5"86%
0.5-1"7%
1-1.5"7%
1.5-2"5%
2-2.5"5%
>3"2%
2.5-3"1%

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