Quebec General Election Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: which party will win the most seats in Quebec's provincial election on October 5, 2026? Quebec's legislature, the National Assembly, has 125 seats, and whichever party wins more seats than any other party wins the election. A Yes on PQ means the Parti Québécois ends up with the highest seat count. A Yes on CAQ means the Coalition Avenir Québec does. A Yes on PLQ means the Quebec Liberal Party does. The market settles on whichever party holds the most seats after the October 5, 2026 vote, based on official results from Élections Québec or credible news reporting. If two parties tie on seats, the one with more total votes wins. If the election is delayed past January 31, 2027, the market resolves as 'Other', which is an important edge case worth knowing. The tiebreaker after votes is alphabetical order, but that scenario would be extremely rare. None of the provided news headlines relate to Quebec politics. They cover an Arizona Republican primary, a politician in India, and a New York City story. There is nothing here relevant to this market. The kind of news that would matter here includes Quebec polling updates, party leadership changes, or major provincial policy debates that shift voter sentiment. The market currently prices PQ as the strong favourite at 73%, so the main uncertainty is not really a three-way contest. It is whether something unexpected disrupts PQ's current lead over the next year. A lot can change in 14 months: party scandals, economic shifts, a strong debate performance, or a surge from CAQ or PLQ could all move the picture. Quebec elections have surprised observers before. The deadline is still relatively far away, which adds genuine unpredictability even to a lopsided market.

The odds right now

• PQ73%
• CAQ14%
• PLQ-1.0 pts (1w)14%
• PCQ0%
• QS0%
• PVQ0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves October 5, 2026

Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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