Republican VP Nominee 2028: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking who will be chosen as the Republican candidate for Vice President in the 2028 US election. A 'Yes' on any named person means they become the official Republican VP pick. Right now the market sees Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, and Marjorie Taylor Greene as the three most likely choices, but many other people could still enter the picture between now and the 2028 Republican National Convention. The market settles on whoever the Republican Party formally nominates as its VP candidate and who accepts that nomination. The official GOP website and other party sources are used to confirm it. One important detail: if the nominee is replaced after being picked but before Election Day, the market still resolves on the first person nominated, not the replacement. The deadline is August 14, 2028, which aligns with when the Republican convention would typically conclude. None of the recent news provided is directly relevant to the 2028 Republican VP race. The most useful development to watch for in the future would be news about who the 2028 Republican presidential nominee is, since that person will ultimately choose their running mate, making the presidential race the single biggest signal for this market. This market is genuinely hard to predict because the VP pick happens roughly two years from now, and the choice belongs entirely to one person: whoever wins the Republican presidential nomination. That person has not been chosen yet. The field of possible VP candidates is wide open, and past elections show that VP picks are often surprising. The current odds spread across Rubio, Paul, and Greene is quite even, which reflects real disagreement, not a clear front-runner.

The odds right now

• Marco Rubio+4.5 pts (1w)30%
• Rand Paul+26.0 pts (1w)27%
• Marjorie Taylor Greene+25.8 pts (1w)27%
• Vivek Ramaswamy+4.5 pts (1w)21%
• Joe Kent-2.6 pts (1w)19%
• Byron Donalds-0.4 pts (1w)19%
• Eric Trump+12.5 pts (1w)16%
• Katie Britt+0.7 pts (1w)6%
• J.D. Vance6%
• Thomas Massie-0.3 pts (1w)5%
• Tucker Carlson-0.2 pts (1w)5%
• Tom Brady-0.6 pts (1w)4%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 14, 2028

This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.com. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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