Russia Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks which party will finish in third place by seat count in Russia's 2026 parliamentary election. Russia's parliament, the State Duma, has seats distributed among several parties, and United Russia typically dominates first place. The real contest here is for the bronze position among the smaller parties: New People (NL), the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR), and the Communist Party (KPRF). A Yes on any one of them means that party ends up with fewer seats than two others but more seats than everyone else. After the September 2026 election, the market settles on whichever listed party holds the third-highest seat count in the State Duma. Seats are the primary measure; if two parties tie on seats, total votes cast for them breaks the tie; if they still tie, alphabetical order of their abbreviations decides. The official source is Russia's Central Election Commission, though credible outside reporting is considered first. If final results are not confirmed by September 30, 2027, the market resolves as 'Other' regardless of the apparent outcome. None of the provided news headlines relate to this market. There are no recent stories here about Russian politics, the 2026 Duma election, or the parties involved. The kind of news that would matter includes polling data from Russia, any changes in party leadership or coalitions, shifts in government policy toward smaller parties, or early reporting on voter registration figures. Three parties are priced almost identically, which is unusual and reflects genuine unpredictability. Russian elections are tightly controlled, so official results may not reflect organic voter preferences, making outside polling unreliable. LDPR and KPRF have deep histories in the Duma, but New People is newer and growing. Party performance can also be shaped by Kremlin-level decisions about which parties are permitted to compete effectively. With over a year until the vote, a lot can shift in coalitions, leadership, or political conditions.

The odds right now

• New People (NL)+9.0 pts (1w)40%
• Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-6.5 pts (1w)36%
• Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)-3.0 pts (1w)23%
• A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)-0.2 pts (1w)1%
• United Russia (ER)-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Rodina-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Civic Platform (GP)-0.2 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 20, 2026

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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