Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of August?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks which AI company will sit in second place on a specific math leaderboard by the end of August 2026. The leaderboard, hosted at arena.ai, ranks AI labs by how well their models perform on math questions, as judged by real users comparing answers head-to-head. A 'Yes' for Google means Google holds that second-place spot. A 'Yes' for Alibaba or Anthropic means one of them beat Google to that position. First place is not the question here, only the runner-up slot. On August 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM Eastern Time, someone will check the arena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard, filter it by 'Labs', and read which company sits in second place in the 'Lab Rank' column. That company wins. If two labs are tied, the tiebreaker goes first to their underlying score, then to alphabetical order. If the website is down at that moment, the check is delayed until it comes back online. If the site shuts down permanently, the market resolves as 'Other'. None of the provided news headlines relate to this market. They cover topics like visa policy, bicycle history, and a whisky award. To follow this market usefully, watch for new AI math model releases from Google, Alibaba, or Anthropic, or any major updates to how arena.ai scores and ranks labs. The AI model race moves fast, and a single new model release between now and August 2026 could shift the rankings significantly. The market currently prices Google as the strong favorite for second place at 70%, so the main uncertainty is whether Alibaba or Anthropic releases something strong enough to displace them. There is also a structural quirk: the leaderboard rankings are built from ongoing user votes, so gradual drift in scores over many months is possible even without a dramatic new launch.

The odds right now

• Google+31.0 pts (1w)70%
• Alibaba+8.3 pts (1w)12%
• Anthropic-14.0 pts (1w)10%
• Baidu-8.2 pts (1w)8%
• Meituan-10.3 pts (1w)5%
• Moonshot+0.2 pts (1w)4%
• OpenAI+1.5 pts (1w)4%
• Microsoft-28.9 pts (1w)4%
• Tencent-16.4 pts (1w)4%
• Z.ai-1.7 pts (1w)3%
• DeepSeek-1.1 pts (1w)2%
• Xiaomi-0.9 pts (1w)2%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 31, 2026

This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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