Secret Harbour State By-Election Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks a simple question: who will win a local election in Secret Harbour, a constituency in Western Australia? Secret Harbour is a suburb south of Perth. The election is for a seat in the Western Australian state parliament. A Yes for Georgia Tree means she wins the seat, a Yes for Luke Herdegen means he wins, and so on. Whoever gets the most votes on election day takes the seat. The market settles on whichever candidate the official results show as the winner of the August 29, 2026 by-election. The official source is the Western Australian Electoral Commission. If results are clear from credible news reporting, that counts too. One edge case to know: if the result is somehow not confirmed by December 31, 2026, the market resolves to 'Other', which is a separate outcome unrelated to any of the three named candidates. None of the provided news headlines relate to this by-election or to Western Australian politics at all. To follow this market meaningfully, the things worth watching would be local campaign news from Secret Harbour, any polling of the race, and coverage from Western Australian political reporters closer to August 29. The market is fairly close between the top two candidates, with Georgia Tree at 51% and Luke Herdegen at 41%, so this is genuinely competitive. By-elections in local constituencies can be unpredictable because turnout is often lower than a general election, and local issues or candidate name recognition can swing things in ways that broader polls miss. With the election still some time away, a lot can shift, and there is very little public information available here to anchor a firm view.

The odds right now

• Georgia Tree-14.5 pts (1w)51%
• Luke Herdegen+12.5 pts (1w)39%
• Ryan Robertson+0.9 pts (1w)6%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 29, 2026

A by-election for the Western Australia state legislative constituency of Secret Harbour is currently scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Secret Harbour state by-election. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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