S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on August 4?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether the S&P 500 ETF known as SPY will finish the trading day above a specific price level on August 4, 2026. SPY is a widely followed fund that tracks the 500 largest US companies, so its price is essentially a snapshot of the overall US stock market. A Yes outcome means the market finished the day above the target price. A No outcome means it finished at or below it. Three separate price targets are listed: $735, $745, and $750, each with its own Yes or No question. This resolves Yes if SPY's official closing price on August 4, 2026 is strictly higher than the listed price, and No if it is equal to or lower. The closing price comes from a data service called Pyth, using the last one-minute trading candle of the regular session. If August 4 is not a normal trading day, the market settles 50-50 rather than Yes or No. If there is a stock split before that date, the target prices get adjusted to match. The equal-to case resolves No, so hitting exactly $745.00 would be a No, not a Yes. No specific recent news was provided for this market. Because the end date is August 4, 2026, the kinds of developments that would matter most are broad US economic news, Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, corporate earnings seasons, and any major geopolitical events that affect investor confidence. Those are things to watch as the date approaches, rather than anything to point to right now. The market currently prices the $735 and $745 thresholds at around 97%, meaning participants collectively see it as very likely SPY will be above those levels in August 2026. At that pricing level, the honest uncertainty is not a balanced two-sided debate. The real question is simply whether something unexpected, like a sharp recession, a major financial crisis, or a severe geopolitical shock, could push the market well below current levels by then. That kind of event is uncommon but not impossible, which is why the odds are high but not 100%.

The odds right now

• $74099%
• $74597%
• $73597%
• $75096%
• $75589%
• $76044%
• $7705%
• $7655%
• $7804%
• $7751%
• $7851%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 4, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on August 4, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.