Stablecoins depeg before 2027?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether any one of several specific stablecoins will lose its dollar peg badly enough to stay below 98 cents for a full 24 hours before the end of 2026. Stablecoins are crypto tokens designed to always be worth exactly one dollar. A 'depeg' means the price drifts away from that one-dollar target. Here, the question is not a small wobble: the coin would need to trade below $0.98 for an entire day, with every single price reading in that window staying under that line. Each stablecoin in this market resolves Yes the moment it spends a full 24-hour window with every single 1-minute price reading below $0.98, as recorded by a service called Pyth on TradingView. The window runs from late October 2025 through December 31, 2026. Even one price reading at $0.98 or above during that 24 hours would break the streak and prevent a Yes. If none of the coins ever meet that condition, all resolve No. Each coin is judged independently. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of developments worth watching would be: signs of financial stress at a stablecoin's issuer, large sudden withdrawals from a stablecoin's reserve, broader crypto market crashes, or regulatory actions that freeze or restrict a stablecoin's operations. Those are the events that have historically pushed stablecoins off their dollar peg. The main challenge is that most stablecoins hold their peg almost all the time, so the bar here is genuinely high: not just a brief dip, but a full 24-hour collapse in every single 1-minute reading. The coins tracked here include both well-established ones and newer or smaller ones, and their risk profiles differ significantly. Broader crypto crises, regulatory shocks, or reserve failures are hard to forecast. The market currently prices individual coins at 17 to 25 percent, reflecting real but not dominant concern.

The odds right now

• USDS+15.0 pts (1w)21%
• USDTb+10.5 pts (1w)17%
• USD1+2.0 pts (1w)11%
• DAI-2.0 pts (1w)7%
• USDE6%
• USD0-17.0 pts (1w)6%
• PYUSD5%
• GHO-1.0 pts (1w)5%
• USDC-0.1 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves January 1, 2027

This market will resolve to “Yes” immediately if all Pyth 1-minute candles for USDS-USD for any 24-hour period are below 98 cents, for candles between 27 Oct ’25 15:00 and 31 Dec ’26 23:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Below 98 cents means all candles in the period have a final “High” price below 0.98000 (i.e., 0.97999 or lower). Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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