U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether the U.S. will sign a hard, formal promise to defend Ukraine militarily before the end of 2026. A Yes means the Trump administration signs something legally binding that says the U.S. will step in with military force if Ukraine is attacked, similar to the defense treaties the U.S. has with Japan or South Korea. A No means the U.S. stops short of that, offering support, aid, or consultation but not a true military defense commitment. The market settles Yes only if a written, jointly announced agreement is finalized by December 31, 2026, that explicitly commits the U.S. to respond militarily if Ukraine is attacked. The bar is high and specific: vague pledges, aid packages, consultative frameworks, or statements of intent do not count. The existing 2024 U.S.-Ukraine bilateral security agreement was already named as a non-qualifying example, so any new deal would need to go meaningfully further. A consensus of credible news reporting will be used to judge whether the bar is met. One relevant headline stands out: a Russian attack on Kyiv reportedly killed 10 people and Ukraine is described as out of Patriot air-defense missiles. That signals ongoing and serious military pressure on Ukraine, which is the broader backdrop for any security talks. However, none of the provided headlines directly report progress on a U.S. security guarantee. The kind of development that would matter here is a formal announcement or treaty negotiation between Washington and Kyiv. The market prices this at only 11%, reflecting how far this outcome sits from current political reality. The Trump administration has shown no public appetite for a NATO-style binding military commitment to Ukraine, and such a treaty would face major political hurdles, including likely Senate involvement. Even if peace talks produce something labeled a 'guarantee,' the strict criteria mean it still might not qualify. The main uncertainty is not really two balanced sides; it is mostly whether something highly unlikely happens in the time remaining.

The odds right now

• U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? -2.5 pts (1w)11%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States formally commits to giving Ukraine a security guarantee, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the Trump administration and the Government of Ukraine, which creates a binding obligation for the United States to defend or directly intervene on Ukraine’s behalf, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying “security guarantee” requires language that is equivalent in character to a NATO Article 5–style mutual defense commitment: the United States must commit to responding militarily if Ukraine is attacked, or otherwise guarantee Ukraine’s defense through binding defense obligations. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.