Venezuela leader end of 2026?

What you need to know

This market asks a simple question: who is running Venezuela at the end of 2026? Right now, Nicolás Maduro is president. A 'Yes' for Maduro means he is still in power on December 31, 2026. A 'Yes' for someone else — like Delcy Rodríguez, his current vice president, or opposition leader María Corina Machado — means that person has taken over the top role by that date. Only one person can win, since the options are mutually exclusive. Whoever officially holds the title of head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12 PM Eastern Time wins this market. 'Officially' means sworn in and recognized — not just nominated or announced. The primary source is the Venezuelan government itself; if that is unclear, the UN's official protocol list is the tiebreaker. One important edge case: if someone is named as the new leader but hasn't been formally sworn in yet by that exact date and time, they would not qualify. None of the provided news headlines relate to Venezuela. They cover US-Iran tensions and an India-US diplomatic meeting. There is no Venezuela-specific news to point to here. The kind of developments worth watching would be: any signs of Maduro's health or grip on power weakening, internal government reshuffles, opposition movements gaining ground, or changes in international pressure on his government. The main uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected disrupts Maduro's hold on power before the end of 2026. The market prices him at 74%, reflecting that he has survived years of economic crisis, international sanctions, and opposition pressure — so continuity is the baseline expectation. But Venezuela's political situation is fragile and opaque. A sudden health issue, an internal coup, or a dramatic shift in geopolitics could change things quickly. Predicting leadership changes in tightly controlled governments is genuinely hard, even for experts close to the situation.

The odds right now

• Nicolás Maduro+4.0 pts (1w)71%
• Delcy Rodríguez-6.5 pts (1w)14%
• María Corina Machado-2.4 pts (1w)4%
• Jorge Rodríguez-0.1 pts (1w)1%
• Edmundo González1%
• No Head of State-0.2 pts (1w)1%
• Diosdado Cabello Rondón-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Donald Trump-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Frank Donovan0%
• Vladimir Padrino López+0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Dinorah Figuera0%
• Evan Pettus0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.

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