Venezuela leader end of 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking one simple question: who is running Venezuela on December 31, 2026? Right now that person is Nicolás Maduro, who has led the country since 2013. A 'Yes for Maduro' means he is still in charge at the end of 2026. The other named options, Delcy Rodríguez, his close ally and current vice president, and María Corina Machado, the opposition leader, would only win if one of them had formally taken over as head of state by that date. Whoever is the officially sworn-in head of state of Venezuela at noon Eastern Time on December 31, 2026 wins the market. The key word is 'officially', the person must actually be in the role, not just nominated or designated. If Maduro were removed but a successor hadn't yet been sworn in, that wouldn't count for the successor yet. The market uses official Venezuelan government sources first, and falls back to the United Nations list if the Venezuelan government is unclear. None of the provided news headlines relate to Venezuela, they are all about the death of U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham. There is no relevant recent news to summarize here. The kinds of developments that would matter for this market include any signs of political instability in Venezuela, health news about Maduro, changes in the opposition's position, or shifts in international pressure on the Venezuelan government. The market is heavily skewed toward Maduro at 76%, so the main uncertainty is not 'who leads' but simply whether something unexpected disrupts his hold on power before the end of 2026. Maduro has survived significant pressure, elections disputes, sanctions, opposition movements, for over a decade. The genuine unknowns are his health, internal loyalty among the military and ruling party, and how external pressure from the U.S. or neighbors might evolve. These are genuinely hard to forecast, which is why the remaining 24% exists.

The odds right now

• Nicolás Maduro+1.8 pts (1w)82%
• Delcy Rodríguez-1.0 pts (1w)12%
• María Corina Machado+0.1 pts (1w)3%
• No Head of State-0.5 pts (1w)1%
• Jorge Rodríguez-0.1 pts (1w)1%
• Edmundo González+0.1 pts (1w)1%
• Diosdado Cabello Rondón+0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Vladimir Padrino López0%
• Dinorah Figuera0%
• Donald Trump0%
• Marco Rubio0%
• Pete Hegseth0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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