WA-01 Primary Winners: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether each listed candidate will finish in the top two of their congressional primary, earning a spot in the November general election. Washington State uses a 'top-two' primary system: all candidates from all parties run on one ballot, and only the two vote-getters with the most votes move forward, regardless of party. A Yes for a candidate means they made it through. A No means they were eliminated on primary day. The market settles based on the official August 4, 2026 primary results for Washington's 1st congressional district. Whichever two candidates finish first and second in total votes advance, and their individual markets resolve Yes. Everyone else resolves No. The source of truth is the Washington Secretary of State's official vote count, with credible news reporting used first if it provides a clear consensus. If the primary is cancelled entirely, all candidates resolve No. None of the provided news headlines relate to this race. There is no recent reporting here about the WA-01 candidates, their campaigns, polling, or fundraising. The kind of news that would matter most to watch for includes local polling, candidate announcements or withdrawals, endorsements from prominent figures, and campaign finance filings showing who has the money and organization to turn out voters. Three real sources of uncertainty shape this race. First, the primary is still in the future, so the field of candidates could change. Second, Washington's top-two format means vote-splitting matters: if multiple candidates appeal to the same voters, they can cancel each other out and let a less-expected name slip through. Third, there is no public polling data provided here to anchor the current odds to anything concrete, which means those odds are based on limited information and could shift significantly as the race develops.

The odds right now

• Suzan DelBene95%
• Mary Silva77%
• Hunter Gordon10%
• Bryce Nickel5%
• Catherine Hildebrand2%
• James Etzkorn1%
• Benjamin Kincaid1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 4, 2026

The non-partisan primary election for the WA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives is scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.