WA-03 Primary First Place: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks which candidate will finish in first place in the August 2026 primary election for Washington's 3rd Congressional District. Washington state uses a 'top-two' primary, meaning all candidates from all parties run on the same ballot, and the top two vote-getters advance to the general election in November. First place here means getting more votes than anyone else on primary day, not winning the seat outright. The market settles on whichever listed candidate receives the most votes when the primary is held on August 4, 2026. The winner is determined by official Washington state election results, confirmed by credible news reporting. If two candidates somehow tie, the tiebreaker is alphabetical order by last name. One important edge case: if the primary is cancelled entirely for any reason, the market resolves to 'Other' rather than any named candidate. None of the provided news headlines relate to this race. There is no recent WA-03-specific reporting to point to here. The kinds of developments worth watching would be new candidate announcements, major endorsements, fundraising reports, or polling from the district. The market prices John Braun as the strong favorite at around 89%, so the main uncertainty is not really 'who leads' but whether something unexpected shifts the race before August 2026. The election is still more than a year away, which is a long time. Candidate fields can change, major news events can reshape local races, and turnout patterns in Washington's open primary can be hard to forecast. The odds are lopsided, but a lot of time remains.

The odds right now

• John Braun+18.0 pts (1w)89%
• Marie Gluesenkamp Perez-12.5 pts (1w)12%
• Brent Hennrich-0.6 pts (1w)1%
• Antony Barran-0.8 pts (1w)1%
• Troy Rasband-2.1 pts (1w)1%
• John Saulie-Rohman-2.3 pts (1w)0%
• Lawrence Kellogg-0.3 pts (1w)0%
• Austin Braswell0%
• John P. Roco-1.1 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 4, 2026

The non-partisan primary election for the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives is scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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