WA-05 Primary Winners: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is really three separate yes/no questions bundled together, one for each candidate. Washington state uses a 'top-two' primary system, meaning all candidates from all parties run on the same ballot, and only the top two vote-getters move on to the general election. So the market is asking: will Michael Baumgartner, Carmela Conroy, and Nate Powell each personally finish in the top two spots on August 4, 2026? Each candidate's market settles as Yes if that person finishes first or second in the WA-05 primary on August 4, 2026, and No if they finish third or lower. The official source is Washington's Secretary of State. One important edge case: if the primary is cancelled entirely for any reason, all three markets resolve No regardless of where the candidates stood in any polling or forecasts. None of the provided news headlines relate to the WA-05 race or any of the three candidates. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. What would be worth watching for is any new candidate entering the race, polling from the district, or campaign fundraising reports, since those are the kinds of signals that tend to move odds in a local primary. The market is heavily lopsided: Baumgartner sits at 98% and Conroy at 79%, meaning the market sees both of them as strong favorites to advance. The real open question is the third slot picture, where Nate Powell sits at only 23%. Because only two advance, Powell would need to beat at least one of the two frontrunners, which the market currently sees as unlikely. The main uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected shifts the race before August 4.

The odds right now

• Michael Baumgartner98%
• Carmela Conroy79%
• Nate Powell23%
• Ann Marie Danimus5%
• Andrew Bartleson3%
• Kevin Fagan3%
• Bajun Mavalwalla3%
• David Womack2%
• Matthew Hayes1%
• Kyle Ursey1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 4, 2026

The non-partisan primary election for the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives is scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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