What will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit in August 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking whether Microsoft's stock price will touch certain levels at any moment during August 2026. There are three separate price targets: $300, $375, and $285. Each one is its own yes-or-no question. A 'Yes' on $375 means the stock briefly reached or passed $375 at some point in August. A 'No' means it never got there during normal trading hours. You are not predicting where the stock ends up, just whether it touches a specific number. Each price target resolves 'Yes' if Microsoft's stock price reaches that level, even for just one minute, during regular trading hours (9:30 AM to 4:00 PM Eastern Time) on any day in August 2026. The data comes from a service called Pyth, which tracks minute-by-minute price data. Note that after-hours or pre-market prices do not count. If Microsoft does a stock split, the target prices adjust automatically. The market closes and settles on September 1, 2026. None of the provided news headlines are directly relevant to Microsoft's stock price in August 2026. The only story with any connection is Amazon joining the $3 trillion market value club, driven by AI and cloud growth. That context is loosely relevant because Microsoft competes in the same AI and cloud space, but it says nothing specific about where Microsoft's stock is trading. Stock prices are genuinely hard to predict over a multi-month window. The three targets span a wide range, which tells you the market sees real uncertainty about which direction Microsoft moves. The $300 target (24% odds) implies the market sees a meaningful but not dominant chance of a drop from current levels. The $375 and $285 targets are each priced at just 5%, meaning the market considers both a sharp rally and a steep drop unlikely but not impossible. Earnings reports, broader tech sentiment, and AI news could all shift things quickly.

The odds right now

• ↓ $300-26.2 pts (1w)24%
• ↓ $375-47.2 pts (1w)5%
• ↓ $285-45.0 pts (1w)5%
• ↓ $345-44.1 pts (1w)5%
• ↓ $360-44.0 pts (1w)4%
• ↓ $315-50.2 pts (1w)1%
• ↓ $330-47.3 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 1, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during August 2026, any 1-minute candle for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.