What will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit in August 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking whether NVIDIA's stock price will touch certain levels at any point during August 2026, during normal trading hours. There are actually two directions being tracked at once: upside targets (will the stock climb to $208 or higher?) and downside targets (will it dip to $200 or $192 or lower?). A Yes means the stock's price touched or crossed that specific number at least once in August, even briefly, within a single trading minute. Each price level settles as Yes or No based on one simple check: did NVIDIA's stock price reach that level during any single minute of regular trading hours (9:30 AM to 4:00 PM ET) in August 2026? The data source is a platform called Pyth, which records minute-by-minute price data. Importantly, pre-market and after-hours price moves do not count, even if they are dramatic. If NVIDIA does a stock split, the target prices are adjusted to match. The market closes September 1, 2026. Two recent pieces of news touch on the broader AI industry rather than NVIDIA specifically. One article from August 5 argues that industrial AI applications are essential to the future of the sector, which could matter for NVIDIA since it supplies chips powering that infrastructure. The other, from August 1, appears to push back on a bearish case against AI stocks. Neither article gives direct information about where NVIDIA's stock price currently sits or where it is heading. Stock prices can move sharply in any direction within a single month, which makes any price-level question genuinely hard to call. The market currently prices the $200 downside target at 93%, meaning participants collectively think a dip to $200 is quite likely, while the $208 upside target sits at 72%. The main uncertainty is not equal on all sides here: the bigger question is whether something unexpected, like a sudden policy shift, earnings surprise, or broad market shock, pushes the stock outside the range the market currently expects.

The odds right now

• ↓ $200+42.9 pts (1w)93%
• ↓ $192+35.0 pts (1w)85%
• ↑ $208+21.5 pts (1w)72%
• ↓ $184+1.0 pts (1w)52%
• ↑ $216-4.0 pts (1w)46%
• ↓ $176-17.0 pts (1w)33%
• ↑ $224-19.0 pts (1w)31%
• ↑ $232-31.5 pts (1w)19%
• ↓ $168+5.0 pts (1w)13%
• ↑ $240-40.5 pts (1w)10%
• ↓ $160+3.0 pts (1w)8%
• ↑ $248+2.3 pts (1w)6%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 1, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during August 2026, any 1-minute candle for NVIDIA (NVDA) has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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