What will SpaceX (SPCX) hit in August 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether the stock price of SpaceX (ticker: SPCX) will touch certain price levels at any point during August 2026. There are three separate price targets: $100 (downward arrow), $95 (downward arrow), and $115 (upward arrow). The arrows signal direction, so the first two are asking whether the price will drop to or below those levels, and the third is asking whether it will climb to or above $115, even briefly, during any single minute of regular trading in August. Each target settles independently as Yes or No by September 1, 2026. For the downward targets ($100 and $95), it resolves Yes if the price touches or goes below that level during any one-minute window in regular trading hours (9:30 AM to 4:00 PM ET). For the upward target ($115), it resolves Yes if the price touches or goes above $115 in any such window. Prices are taken from Pyth's data feed, and stock splits would adjust the targets proportionally. Pre-market and after-hours prices do not count. One recent headline from August 3, 2026 notes that stocks broadly rose following a policy reversal by the Trump administration. That kind of broad market rally could push individual stocks like SPCX upward, which would be relevant to the $115 upside target. However, one headline gives limited detail, so it is hard to say how much this specific stock moved or whether the rally continued. SpaceX stock is not widely traded on a public exchange the way most stocks are, which makes its price behavior harder to anticipate than a typical company. The three targets span a meaningful range, and the market prices them quite differently: the $100 drop is at 80% and $95 drop at 70%, while the $115 rise sits at 51%, almost a coin flip. The biggest uncertainty is simply that a single news event, a policy change, or a Starship launch update could move the price sharply in either direction within a single trading month.

The odds right now

• ↓ $100+24.0 pts (1w)80%
• ↓ $95+19.5 pts (1w)70%
• ↑ $125+7.0 pts (1w)57%
• ↑ $130+2.0 pts (1w)51%
• ↑ $115+2.5 pts (1w)51%
• ↑ $120-0.5 pts (1w)50%
• ↓ $90-2.0 pts (1w)48%
• ↓ $85-3.0 pts (1w)47%
• ↑ $145-12.0 pts (1w)38%
• ↑ $140-13.5 pts (1w)37%
• ↑ $135-17.0 pts (1w)33%
• ↓ $80+6.0 pts (1w)32%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 1, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during August 2026, any 1-minute candle for SpaceX (SPCX) has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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