What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in August 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how high the S&P 500 ETF, known as SPY, will climb during August 2026. SPY is a fund that tracks the 500 largest US companies and trades like a stock, with a price currently in the $500-600 range. Each sub-market sets a specific price target: $730, $750, or $760. A Yes means SPY touched or passed that price at least once during August 2026. A No means it never got there. Each price target resolves Yes the moment SPY's recorded high, on any single one-minute window during normal trading hours in August 2026, reaches or exceeds that number. Even a brief spike counts. The data comes from a service called Pyth, using one-minute price candles. Only regular hours apply, 9:30 AM to 4:00 PM ET. Pre-market and after-hours prices do not count. If SPY undergoes a stock split, the target prices are adjusted to match. If Pyth's data is unavailable, official exchange daily highs are used instead. No specific recent news was provided for this market. The kinds of developments worth watching would be major shifts in US economic data, Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, corporate earnings seasons, and any large geopolitical events that tend to move stock markets sharply in either direction. The market currently prices $750 at 88%, $730 at 62%, and $760 at 52%, suggesting participants see meaningful but unequal chances across the targets. August 2026 is over a year away, which is a long time for surprises. A recession, a geopolitical shock, or a sharp policy change could push SPY well below these targets. On the other hand, continued growth could carry it through all three. The core uncertainty is simply that no one can reliably forecast where a broad market index lands that far out.

The odds right now

• ↑ $740+49.5 pts (1w)99%
• ↑ $750+37.5 pts (1w)88%
• ↓ $730+12.0 pts (1w)62%
• ↑ $760+1.5 pts (1w)52%
• ↓ $720-15.5 pts (1w)35%
• ↑ $770-23.5 pts (1w)27%
• ↓ $710-26.5 pts (1w)24%
• ↓ $700-28.5 pts (1w)22%
• ↓ $690-37.5 pts (1w)13%
• ↑ $780-39.0 pts (1w)11%
• ↑ $800+0.5 pts (1w)7%
• ↓ $680-47.3 pts (1w)6%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 1, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during August 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPY) has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.