What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in August 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks how high or how low the price of gold will travel during August 2026. There are three separate price targets: $4,000 and $4,100 on the upside, and $4,200 also on the upside. Each one is an independent Yes or No question: did gold's price touch that level at any moment during the month? It is not about where gold finishes the month, just whether it ever briefly reaches each target, even for a single minute. Each target resolves Yes if, at any point during any trading session in August 2026, a single one-minute price candle shows a high or low that reaches the listed number. The data source is Pyth, a real-time price feed, checked at one-minute intervals. If Pyth has a technical outage, the backup is official CME COMEX Gold Futures daily data. If gold does not trade at all in August 2026, everything resolves No. The key edge case: only a brief touch is needed, not a sustained price. None of the recent news provided is relevant to gold's price in August 2026. The headlines cover unrelated topics like wine, a truck explosion, and Colorado's anniversary. There is no market-moving gold price news to point to here. The kinds of developments worth watching would be shifts in US interest rate expectations, major central bank gold purchases or sales, or significant changes in global economic uncertainty. The market prices the $4,000 target at 86% and the $4,100 target at 88%, suggesting the market already sees gold well above both levels. The $4,200 target at 54% is genuinely uncertain. Gold prices can move sharply on surprises: sudden changes in Federal Reserve policy, geopolitical shocks, or currency swings can push prices quickly in either direction. Because only a single one-minute touch is needed, a brief spike counts, which makes Yes outcomes more achievable than if a sustained price were required.

The odds right now

• ↑ $4,100+37.5 pts (1w)88%
• ↓ $4,000+14.0 pts (1w)86%
• ↑ $4,200+4.5 pts (1w)55%
• ↓ $3,900-2.0 pts (1w)48%
• ↑ $4,300-21.0 pts (1w)29%
• ↓ $3,800-21.5 pts (1w)28%
• ↓ $3,700-37.0 pts (1w)13%
• ↑ $4,400-39.5 pts (1w)11%
• ↓ $3,600-42.0 pts (1w)8%
• ↑ $4,500-44.0 pts (1w)6%
• ↓ $3,500-44.3 pts (1w)6%
• ↑ $4,600-26.2 pts (1w)2%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 1, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of August 2026, any 1-minute candle for Gold (XAUUSD) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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