What will the Bitcoin Implied Volatility index hit by August 31?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking whether Bitcoin's 'fear gauge' for options will spike to a specific level before the end of August 2026. The BVIV is an index that measures how much volatility traders expect in Bitcoin over the next 30 days, similar to how the VIX works for stocks. A higher number means more expected turbulence. The three versions here ask whether BVIV will touch 40, 45, or 50 at any single moment, even briefly, between now and August 31. Each version resolves Yes the instant any one-minute price bar on the BVIV chart touches or crosses the target number, either as a high or a low on that candle. It only takes one brief spike or dip to trigger it. The data source is specifically the Volmex chart set to one-minute candles at charts.volmex.finance. Readings from any other platform or index do not count, even if they show similar numbers. If the threshold is never touched by 23:59 ET on August 31, 2026, it resolves No. None of the provided news headlines relate to Bitcoin, cryptocurrency markets, or volatility in any way. They cover topics like a ferry fire, a flight attendant strike, and a horoscope column. The kind of news that would actually matter here includes major regulatory announcements about crypto, large Bitcoin price swings, or significant macroeconomic shocks that tend to push volatility indexes sharply higher. Volatility indexes are genuinely hard to forecast because they react to surprises, and surprises are, by definition, unpredictable. BVIV can sit quietly for weeks and then spike sharply in a single day if a major event hits crypto markets. The 40-level version is priced at 75% by the market, suggesting the crowd sees it as more likely than not, while the 50-level sits at 46%. But a calm few months with no major crypto news could easily keep the index below all three thresholds.

The odds right now

• ↑ 4074%
• ↑ 5046%
• ↓ 3533%
• ↑ 4531%
• ↑ 5518%
• ↑ 608%
• ↑ 704%
• ↓ 302%
• ↓ 252%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 1, 2026

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Volmex 1 minute candle for the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index (BVIV) between the creation of this market and 23:59 ET on the date specified in the title has a final "High" or "Low" value equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed value. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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