What will Trump post this week? (July 27 - August 2): how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking whether Trump will type specific words on his Truth Social account during one particular week. There are three separate yes/no questions bundled here: will he write 'Lindsey' or 'Graham', will he write 'Israel', and will he write 'China'? A Yes on any one of them just means that word appeared in something he personally typed and posted, in any context at all. Each term resolves Yes if Trump types it himself in an original post or a reply on his verified Truth Social account between July 27 and August 2, 2026. Reposts and shares do not count. Plurals and possessives do count. Misspellings do not count, even obvious ones. If he writes the word inside a hashtag or after an '@' symbol, it still counts. If he scrambles it with symbols like 'Isr@el', it does not count. The only source that matters is his @realDonaldTrump Truth Social account. One headline mentions Netanyahu and Israel, and another asks about a Trump nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia involving the Middle East. These suggest Israel-related topics are active in the news cycle this week, which is relevant context for whether 'Israel' gets mentioned. There is no notable recent news in the provided headlines directly involving Lindsey Graham or China-US relations this week. The main question for each term is really just how often Trump posts and whether that topic comes up in a given seven-day window. The market already prices 'Israel' at 87% and 'China' at 77%, reflecting that these are recurring topics in his posts. 'Lindsey/Graham' at 94% suggests the market sees that as nearly certain. The genuine uncertainty is small but real: a quiet week, a topic pivot, or an unexpected event could shift things. The resolution rules around misspellings and reposts are the most likely source of surprise.

The odds right now

• Lindsey / Graham91%
• Israel85%
• China77%
• Communist67%
• Crime67%
• Rigged67%
• Russia67%
• Uranium56%
• Nuclear54%
• Gold / Golden53%
• President Xi50%
• Wall Street45%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 2, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts/truths the listed term between July 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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