Which of these republicans will be the first to announce a run for President?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking which Republican politician will be the first to formally declare they are running for president in 2028. The ten people on the list are all prominent Republicans, and the question is simply about timing: who says the words first. A Yes for a specific person means they made a clear, public announcement of their candidacy before anyone else on the list did. A No for that person means someone else got there first, or nobody on the list announced at all by the deadline. To settle this market, one of the ten listed individuals must make a clear, public statement that they are running for president in 2028, before December 31, 2027. The key word is 'unambiguous': saying 'I am considering running' or forming an exploratory committee does not count. It must be a real declaration. If nobody on the list makes that kind of announcement in time, the market resolves to 'Other'. Also worth knowing: once someone says it, the market locks in, even if that person later drops out. The recent news provided does not appear to relate to this market at all. It covers topics like a U.S.-Saudi nuclear deal, currency markets, and a bridge project. None of the headlines involve any of the ten listed individuals announcing or signaling a 2028 presidential run. The kind of news that would actually matter here would be a public speech, interview, or social media post from one of these politicians declaring or strongly hinting at a candidacy. The biggest challenge here is timing. We are still in mid-2026, and the 2028 election is far enough away that most serious politicians have little reason to announce this early. The market is split fairly evenly between DeSantis, Cruz, and Paul, which reflects real uncertainty about who moves first. Some of these figures hold current offices or roles that may affect when they choose to speak up. External political events between now and the deadline could shift the calculations of any of these individuals in ways that are impossible to predict today.

The odds right now

• Ron DeSantis28%
• Ted Cruz23%
• Rand Paul23%
• J.D. Vance12%
• Marco Rubio8%
• Vivek Ramaswamy4%
• Donald Trump Jr.3%
• Glenn Youngkin3%
• Marjorie Taylor Greene2%
• Donald Trump2%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2027

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.