Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple timing question: will a specific person publicly say they are running for president in 2028, and will they say it before the end of 2026? Each listed person, Pete Buttigieg, Gavin Newsom, and Don Lemon, has their own separate odds. A Yes means that person made a clear public announcement of a 2028 presidential run before December 31, 2026. A No means they stayed silent on it, or waited until 2027 or later to say anything. The market settles Yes the moment the listed person makes a public announcement that they are running for president in 2028, as long as it happens by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The announcement itself is enough, even if they never formally file paperwork. It can come from a speech, a social media post, or be confirmed by credible news reporting. If the person says nothing by that deadline, or announces a run after it, the market resolves No. No recent news directly covers an announcement from Buttigieg, Newsom, or Lemon about a 2028 presidential run. One headline suggests a columnist thinks Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez should run, which points to the broader conversation happening around who might challenge for the Democratic nomination, but that is not the same as any of the listed individuals declaring. The kind of news that would actually matter here is a direct statement or credible report from one of these three people specifically. The 2028 election is still far off, and most serious politicians deliberately wait before announcing, since early declarations carry political risk. The market currently prices each person at roughly 13 to 14%, meaning the market thinks it is more likely than not that none of them will announce this early. The real uncertainty is timing and strategy: any of these people could be actively considering a run but choose to wait until 2027 or later, which would resolve this No even if they eventually do run.

The odds right now

• Pete Buttigieg14%
• Gavin Newsom-4.5 pts (1w)13%
• Don Lemon+9.6 pts (1w)13%
• Stephen A. Smith+1.5 pts (1w)13%
• Kamala Harris-4.0 pts (1w)12%
• Rahm Emanuel12%
• Andy Beshear-0.5 pts (1w)11%
• Ted Cruz11%
• Tucker Carlson-1.0 pts (1w)11%
• Steve Bannon11%
• Mark Kelly10%
• Brian Kemp10%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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