Zambia Presidential Election Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking who will win the Zambia presidential election scheduled for August 13, 2026. A 'Yes' for Hakainde Hichilema means he wins and keeps the presidency. A 'Yes' for Brian Mundubile or Fred M'membe means one of them defeats the sitting president. Hichilema is the current president of Zambia, so this is essentially asking: does he win re-election, or does an opposition candidate beat him? The market settles on whichever listed candidate is declared the winner of the August 13, 2026 Zambian presidential election. If no one wins outright in the first round, a second round is included. The official source is the Electoral Commission of Zambia, backed by credible news reporting. One important edge case: if clear results are not available by March 31, 2027, the market resolves as 'Other', not as any named candidate, regardless of what is happening on the ground. None of the recent news provided relates to Zambia or this election. There are no headlines here about Zambian politics, the candidates, or the campaign. If you are following this market, the kinds of developments worth watching would be polling updates, major policy announcements from any candidate, or any legal or electoral commission rulings about the vote. The market prices Hichilema's re-election at 89%, so it is heavily one-sided. The main uncertainty is not really a balanced contest between candidates. Instead, it is the smaller but real chance that something unexpected happens: a strong opposition surge, a candidate entering or exiting the race, economic conditions shifting public mood, or election administration issues. For a market this lopsided, the honest question is simply whether the unlikely outcome occurs, not which side is stronger.

The odds right now

• Hakainde Hichilema+4.0 pts (1w)89%
• Brian Mundubile-0.5 pts (1w)11%
• Fred M'membe+0.5 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 14, 2026

Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in Zambia on August 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Zambian presidential election. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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