Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by August 31?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking whether Anthropic, the AI company behind Claude, will reach a specific company valuation before the end of August 2026. There are actually three separate thresholds being tracked: $1.175 trillion, $1.2 trillion, and $1.1 trillion. A 'Yes' on any threshold means Anthropic's estimated worth crossed that number at some point before the deadline. A 'No' means it never quite got there. Think of it like tracking whether a private company's price tag hits a certain milestone. The market settles based on a specific data source: the NPM Price published by Nasdaq Private Market, a service that tracks valuations of private companies by monitoring actual trades of their shares. If that price, on any single trading day between now and August 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed threshold, it resolves Yes. If Anthropic goes public via an IPO before then, the market will also use its public stock market value. One important edge case: if Anthropic gets acquired and stops existing as an independent company, only valuations before that deal closes will count. None of the provided recent headlines relate to Anthropic or its valuation. They cover topics like India's semiconductor industry and election news. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kinds of developments that would matter for this market include new Anthropic funding rounds, major product launches, shifts in AI industry sentiment, or any news about a possible IPO. The market prices the $1.175T threshold at 87% and $1.2T at 70%, meaning participants see these as fairly likely but not certain. The core difficulty is that Anthropic is a private company, so its valuation only updates when shares actually trade on secondary markets, which can be infrequent and unpredictable. Broader AI industry sentiment, competition from other labs, and general economic conditions can all shift that number. The main uncertainty at these odds is not whether growth happens, but whether any single unexpected setback could push the valuation off track.

The odds right now

• ↑$1.175T92%
• ↑$1.2T67%
• ↓$1.1T21%
• ↑$1.25T20%
• ↑$1.3T14%
• ↑$1.5T8%
• ↓$1T7%
• ↓$900B3%
• ↑$1.75T2%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 1, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and August 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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