Will ByteDance's valuation hit __ by August 31?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking whether ByteDance, the Chinese company that owns TikTok, will reach a specific total company value by the end of August 2026. There are actually two separate versions running at once: one asks if the valuation hits $575 billion, and another asks if it hits $600 billion. ByteDance is still privately owned, meaning its shares are not traded on a public stock exchange, so its value is estimated through a private trading platform called Nasdaq Private Market. The market settles as Yes if the NPM Price, which is Nasdaq Private Market's published estimate of ByteDance's value, reaches or exceeds the target amount on any single day between now and August 31, 2026. It only needs to hit the number once, not stay there. One important edge case: if ByteDance goes public through an IPO before the deadline, the market will then use its actual stock market value instead. If NPM stops publishing data entirely, the market uses whatever was last reported. None of the provided news headlines relate to ByteDance's valuation, TikTok, or any relevant corporate or regulatory developments. There is nothing here to inform how things might unfold. The kind of news that would matter includes any reports of new private share sales at a specific price, progress or setbacks on a potential TikTok sale in the United States, or any movement toward a public listing. Private company valuations are genuinely hard to pin down because there is no daily stock price to watch. The NPM figure is based on private share trades, which happen less frequently and with less transparency than public markets. On top of that, ByteDance sits at the center of ongoing US-China tensions over TikTok, meaning regulatory news can shift expectations quickly. The $575B threshold is priced at 59% and the $600B threshold at 25%, so the market sees a meaningful gap between those two outcomes.

The odds right now

• ↑$575B43%
• ↓$525B33%
• ↑$600B23%
• ↓$500B19%
• ↑$650B9%
• ↓$450B6%
• ↑$725B4%
• ↑$800B1%
• ↑$850B1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 1, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if ByteDance's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and August 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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