Will Claude go down on __ days in August?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple question: how many days in August 2026 will Claude, Anthropic's AI assistant at claude.ai, have any kind of service outage or disruption? The three options are 5 to 7 days down, 8 to 10 days down, or 11 to 13 days down. A 'down day' does not have to mean the service is completely dead, just that the official status page shows something other than a clean green indicator for that day. At the end of August 2026, someone will check the official Claude status page at status.claude.com and count how many days showed a non-green color, which signals any kind of incident or degraded service. Only the claude.ai component counts, not other Claude products. The count is finalized day by day as each new day officially begins on that status page. The market settles after August ends, with a grace period of up to 7 days if the final day is slow to appear. None of the provided news headlines are relevant to Claude's service reliability or Anthropic's infrastructure. There is no recent news here to draw from. The kind of news that would matter for this market would be reports of major outages, infrastructure changes at Anthropic, or announcements about Claude's platform stability. The main challenge is that cloud service reliability is hard to forecast even a week out, let alone for an entire future month. Past outage patterns give some signal, but any single infrastructure incident, a traffic spike, a software deployment issue, or an external dependency failure can add or remove days quickly. The market currently splits its weight between 5 to 7 days and 8 to 10 days, suggesting genuine disagreement. There is also a small but real chance the true number falls outside all three ranges, which would matter for how the market settles.

The odds right now

• 5-746%
• 8-1028%
• 11-139%
• <56%
• 14+2%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 31, 2026

This market will resolve according to the number of days in August 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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