Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by August 31?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking whether Databricks, a major AI and data company, will reach a specific company value before the end of August 2026. Databricks is still privately owned, so its value is not set by a public stock price but by secondary market trading of its shares. There are three separate thresholds here: $180 billion, $175 billion, and $150 billion, each with its own odds. A Yes means the valuation hit or crossed that number at some point before the deadline. A No means it never did. The market settles based on a specific daily price published by Nasdaq Private Market, a platform where shares of private companies like Databricks are traded. If that price, on any single trading day between now and August 31, 2026, implies a total company value at or above the listed threshold, the market resolves Yes. One important edge case: if Databricks goes public through an IPO before August 2026, the market will also look at the actual public stock price and market cap from that point forward to decide the outcome. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of developments that would matter most here are: a new funding round that sets a fresh valuation, any announcement of an IPO or plans to go public, or major financial results that signal how fast Databricks is growing its revenue. Databricks is a private company, so its valuation is not updated constantly like a public stock. It moves in steps, mostly when new funding rounds or secondary market trades happen. The market has over a year left until the deadline, which is a long time in the AI industry. Broader conditions, like interest rates, investor appetite for tech, and competition from companies like Snowflake and cloud providers, all play a role. The three thresholds also sit meaningfully apart, which is why the market prices them differently.

The odds right now

• ↑$175B96%
• ↑$180B89%
• ↑$190B50%
• ↓$165B10%
• ↑$200B8%
• ↓$150B6%
• ↑$250B4%
• ↑$225B4%
• ↓$140B3%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 1, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Databricks' private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and August 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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