Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by...?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and a powerful figure in his own right, will physically leave Iran and have that confirmed by credible reporting before the deadline. A Yes means he was spotted, photographed, or otherwise verified to be on foreign soil. A No means he stayed inside Iran the entire time, or at least that no confirmed report of him being abroad emerged. The market settles Yes only if two things happen before the deadline: Mojtaba Khamenei actually leaves Iran, and credible news sources confirm it. Both the travel and the confirmation must happen within the market window. If he flies somewhere, simply passing through Iranian airspace is not enough, he must physically land and exit the plane in another country. If no reliable reporting confirms he was abroad by the deadline, it resolves No, even if he did leave but it was never reported. The provided headlines describe active US military strikes on Iran as of July 20, 2026, with reports of intensifying attacks and the US claiming control of the Strait of Hormuz. This context is directly relevant: an ongoing military conflict with Iran makes it more notable, and arguably more consequential, whether a senior figure like Mojtaba Khamenei moves outside the country, whether for safety, diplomacy, or other reasons. The core difficulty is that Mojtaba Khamenei is a largely opaque figure who operates with very little public visibility, so confirming his movements is genuinely hard even when they occur. The active US-Iran conflict adds another layer: it could push him to leave, or make travel impossible, or make confirmation harder to obtain. The market is priced very low across all dates, suggesting most participants consider departure unlikely, but the main real uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected happens in an already unpredictable conflict situation.

The odds right now

• August 315%
• July 311%
• July 241%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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