Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by...?
August 31
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This market asks whether Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and a powerful figure in his own right, will physically leave Iran and have that confirmed by credible reporting before the deadline. A Yes means he was spotted, photographed, or otherwise verified to be on foreign soil. A No means he stayed inside Iran the entire time, or at least that no confirmed report of him being abroad emerged.
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August 31
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed. Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran. In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes". If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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August 31
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