Will Nigel Farage up his vote share in Clacton?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Nigel Farage will win a larger share of the vote in an upcoming Clacton by-election than he did in the 2024 general election. In 2024, Farage won the Clacton seat with roughly 46% of the vote. A Yes means his slice of the total votes cast goes higher than that. A No means it stays the same or drops, or that the by-election never happens, or that Farage does not run. The market settles Yes if Farage runs in the by-election and his vote percentage is strictly higher than his 2024 result in Clacton. The official vote totals from Tendring District Council and UK Parliament are the source. There are three important edge cases that force a No regardless of anything else: Farage does not stand as a candidate, the by-election does not take place before June 30, 2027, or the results are not confirmed by that date. None of the provided news headlines relate to this market. They all concern an unrelated celebrity story. The key things to watch for here would be: an official announcement of the by-election date, confirmation that Farage is standing as a candidate, and any polling or local political developments in Clacton ahead of the vote. The market prices this heavily toward Yes at 93%, so the main honest uncertainty is not a close contest between two equal possibilities. The real risk is the edge cases: Farage decides not to run, the by-election is delayed past mid-2027, or turnout dynamics shift his vote share down even if he wins. By-elections also tend to produce unusual results compared to general elections, which could move his percentage in either direction in ways that are hard to anticipate.

The odds right now

• Will Nigel Farage up his vote share in Clacton?-4.7 pts (1w)91%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 30, 2027

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage receives a greater percentage of valid votes in the next by-election in Clacton than in the 2024 election in Clacton. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.