Will Revolut's valuation hit __ by August 31?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking whether Revolut, the British fintech company, will reach a specific company value (measured in dollars) at any point before September 2026. There are three separate versions of this market with different targets: $105 billion, $95 billion, and $85 billion. A 'Yes' means Revolut's valuation touched or passed that number at least once during the period. A 'No' means it never did. Think of it like asking whether a company's price tag ever crossed a certain line, not just where it ends up. The market settles based on a specific data source: the NPM Price published by Nasdaq Private Market, which tracks Revolut's value on private secondary markets where shares trade between investors. If that price hits the target at any point before August 31, 2026, it resolves Yes. One important edge case: if Revolut goes public (an IPO) before the deadline, the market will also use its actual stock market value to check against the target. If NPM stops publishing data entirely, the market uses whatever data exists up to that point. None of the provided news headlines are relevant to Revolut or its valuation. There is no recent news to point to here. The kind of development worth watching for would be a new funding round that sets a fresh valuation, an announcement of a planned IPO, or a major change in Revolut's business performance or regulatory status. The main challenge is that private company valuations do not update like stock prices. They move in occasional jumps, when a funding round closes or secondary market trades happen, rather than continuously. The market currently prices the $105 billion target at around 82%, so participants lean toward it being reached, but that is a minority chance still left for it not happening. Broader economic conditions, fintech investor sentiment, and any regulatory setbacks in Revolut's key markets could all push the valuation in either direction before the deadline.

The odds right now

• ↑$105B82%
• ↓$95B44%
• ↓$85B38%
• ↑$135B38%
• ↑$110B22%
• ↑$125B12%
• ↑$115B9%
• ↑$120B8%
• ↓$75B3%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 1, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Revolut's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and August 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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