Will Super Typhoon Dolphin make landfall at Category 4 strength or higher?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Typhoon Dolphin will still be an extremely powerful storm at the exact moment it hits land. A Yes means Dolphin crosses a coastline while carrying winds of at least 105 knots, which is roughly 195 kilometers per hour, strong enough to qualify as a Category 4 typhoon. A No means it either weakens before reaching land, misses land entirely, or falls apart over the ocean. The market settles based on one specific source: the Japan Meteorological Agency advisory published just before Dolphin's center crosses a coastline. If that advisory shows winds of 105 knots or more, it resolves Yes. If winds are below that, or if Dolphin never makes landfall before August 15, 2026, it resolves No. Importantly, no later updates or official post-season reviews can change the result once that moment passes. None of the recent news provided relates to Typhoon Dolphin or Pacific weather conditions. There is nothing useful to report from the headlines supplied. The kind of update that would matter here is a JMA advisory showing Dolphin's current track and intensity, or meteorological reports on whether the storm is strengthening, weakening, or heading toward land. The market prices this at roughly 11%, meaning most participants think a strong landfall is unlikely. The main challenge with any typhoon forecast is that storms weaken sharply when they pass over shallow coastal waters or interact with land, so a powerful storm can still drop well below Category 4 right before crossing the coast. Track uncertainty also matters: a slight shift can mean open ocean instead of land. At 11%, the main uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected changes the storm's path or intensity.

The odds right now

• Will Super Typhoon Dolphin make landfall at Category 4 strength or higher?5%

Price history

How this resolves

This market resolves "Yes" if Super Typhoon Dolphin makes landfall on any landmass while the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing shows maximum sustained wind speed near center of 105 knots or higher, corresponding approximately to Category 4 equivalent intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing any coastline, as determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming landfall. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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