Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Sara Duterte, the Vice President of the Philippines, will be removed from office through a formal conviction by the Philippine Senate. A Yes means the Senate finds her guilty on at least one of the charges the House of Representatives sent forward, which would remove her from office. A No means she escapes conviction, either because the Senate votes to acquit her, or because the Senate dismisses the case without ever reaching a guilty verdict. The market settles Yes only if the Philippine Senate convicts Sara Duterte on at least one article of impeachment that the House passed in May 2026, and that conviction happens before December 31, 2026. Conviction in the Philippines requires a two-thirds vote of the Senate sitting as an impeachment court. One important edge case: if the Senate throws out or formally dismisses all the charges without a conviction, the market can resolve No early, before the deadline even arrives. None of the news provided relates to Sara Duterte or the Philippine impeachment proceedings. No relevant updates are available here. The things worth watching for would be: the Senate formally opening the impeachment trial, any votes on procedure or preliminary motions, and statements from individual senators about how they plan to vote. The market sits at 33% for Yes, meaning the market currently sees conviction as less likely than acquittal or dismissal, but far from impossible. The core difficulty is political: a conviction needs two-thirds of the Senate, which is a high bar, and Senate alliances in the Philippines shift. The timeline is also tight, since a full trial must conclude before end of 2026. The biggest unknowns are how senators align politically, whether the trial even begins in time, and what evidence emerges during proceedings.

The odds right now

• Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte? +5.0 pts (1w)35%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.