What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit Week of August 3 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks how low WTI crude oil prices will fall during the week of August 3, 2026. WTI crude oil is the main US oil benchmark, and its price matters for everything from gasoline to airline tickets. There are three separate price targets here, all pointing downward: $85, $80, and $75 per barrel. Each one is its own yes/no question asking whether oil will touch or drop below that specific price at any moment during that week. Each target resolves Yes if, at any point during that week's trading sessions, the price of the active WTI crude oil futures contract touches or drops below the listed price, even briefly, on a single one-minute price candle. The data comes from Pyth, a real-time price feed. Trading runs Sunday evening through Friday afternoon US Eastern time, with a short daily break. If oil never trades that week at all, every target resolves No. The key detail: even a single one-minute dip to or below the target counts as a Yes. The provided news headlines are about breastfeeding awareness events and school reopenings, which have no connection to oil markets. There is no relevant recent news here to draw from. To track this market, the developments worth watching would be OPEC production decisions, US oil inventory reports, global demand signals, and any major geopolitical events affecting oil-producing regions. Oil prices are genuinely hard to forecast over a year in advance. The three targets tell a story about where the market currently stands: the $85 target is priced at 84%, suggesting the market considers a drop that far fairly plausible, while $75 sits at 50%, a true coin-flip. A lot can shift between now and August 2026, including OPEC supply choices, global economic growth or slowdown, currency moves, and unexpected geopolitical events. Each of those forces can push prices sharply in either direction with little warning.

The odds right now

• ↓ $8584%
• ↓ $8076%
• ↓ $7541%
• ↑ $9024%
• ↓ $7011%
• ↑ $958%
• ↑ $1057%
• ↑ $1003%
• ↓ $652%
• ↑ $1102%
• ↑ $1151%
• ↓ $551%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 7, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of the week of August 3 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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