WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above ___ on August 4?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether the price of US crude oil will be above a specific dollar level at the close of trading on August 4, 2026. WTI (West Texas Intermediate) is the main benchmark for American oil prices, and this is simply asking: did oil finish that day above $75, $76, or $77 per barrel? Yes means the closing price beat that number. No means it did not. The market settles based on the official closing price of WTI crude oil futures on August 4, 2026, pulled from a data source called Pyth. If the closing price is strictly higher than the listed amount, it resolves Yes. If it lands exactly on that number or below, it resolves No. One edge case to know: if August 4 turns out not to be a trading day, the market splits 50-50 instead of resolving Yes or No. None of the provided news is relevant to oil prices or this market. There are no recent headlines here about crude oil supply, demand, OPEC decisions, or economic conditions. The kind of news that would matter includes changes in oil production from major producers, shifts in global economic growth expectations, or major geopolitical events affecting energy supply. The market prices all three thresholds above 95%, meaning participants currently see it as very unlikely oil will fall below $75 by August 4, 2026. At that confidence level, the main uncertainty is not a close call between two sides, it is simply whether something unexpected and significant happens, such as a sharp global recession, a major surge in oil supply, or another large shock that pushes prices down hard. Surprises are rare but not impossible over a long time horizon.

The odds right now

• $7598%
• $7697%
• $7797%
• $7894%
• $7985%
• $8073%
• $8153%
• $8237%
• $8323%
• $8410%
• $854%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 4, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures (WTI) on August 4, 2026, is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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