Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by...?
December 31
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Understand this market
This market asks whether Delcy Rodríguez will lose her position as Venezuela's acting leader at any point before the end of 2026. A Yes means she steps down, gets removed, or is otherwise pushed out of power. A No means she stays in the role through December 31, 2026. The key word is 'any period': even a brief removal counts, not just a permanent one.
The market settles Yes the moment Rodríguez is confirmed to have left the leadership role, even if only temporarily. That could happen through resignation, an official removal, detention, or being effectively blocked from doing her job. An announcement alone is enough to trigger Yes, even before it formally takes effect. The market uses official Venezuelan government statements or a broad agreement among credible news sources as its reference points. It resolves No if she remains in place through December 31, 2026.
One piece of relevant context from the provided news is a major earthquake in Venezuela with a death toll reported past 6,000 as of early August 2026. A crisis of that scale can shift political dynamics quickly, either rallying support around a sitting leader or creating pressure that destabilizes them. None of the other headlines relate directly to Rodríguez or Venezuelan politics. No news specifically about her position or any leadership change was provided.
The market prices this at around 10%, meaning participants currently see removal as unlikely but not impossible. The main uncertainty is the unpredictability of Venezuelan politics: leadership changes there have historically been sudden and opaque. The earthquake crisis adds a wild card. On the other hand, Rodríguez is closely tied to the Maduro political network, and insider reshuffles in Venezuela rarely follow outside expectations. The honest answer is that the situation is hard to read from the outside, which is part of why the odds sit low rather than near zero.
Order Book
December 31
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Delcy Rodríguez ceases to be Acting President/leader of Venezuela for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Delcy Rodríguez's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Delcy Rodríguez and the government of Venezuela; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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December 31
14%