Felix FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Felix's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Felix Protocol doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Felix Protocol's token fully diluted valuation (FDV) at one day after launch is the subject of a multi-bracket prediction market, with trading volume most heavily concentrated on the lower thresholds of $25M and $50M. The market covers eight FDV brackets ranging from $25M to $2B, with interest thinning sharply at higher valuations. Resolution uses the most liquid available price source, measured at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after launch, with a hard deadline of 31 December 2026 for the token to launch.

Market structure

Eight separate yes/no markets ask whether Felix's FDV will exceed specific thresholds — $25M, $50M, $100M, $300M, $500M, $800M, $1B, and $2B — one day after token launch. Trading is heavily concentrated on the two lowest thresholds, with volume thinning progressively at higher brackets. Each market resolves independently using total token supply multiplied by token price, sourced from the most liquid available venue. If no token launches by 31 December 2026, all brackets resolve No.

Background

Felix Protocol is a decentralised finance project whose token has not yet launched as of the time of writing. Pre-launch FDV markets have become a standard feature of crypto prediction platforms, allowing participants to express views on how the market will price a new token in its earliest hours of trading. FDV — total token supply multiplied by current price — is widely used in the DeFi sector as a headline valuation metric, though it can be highly volatile in the period immediately following a token's debut, when liquidity is thinnest and price discovery is still forming. The project's token launch timeline extends to the end of 2026, giving a broad window for the event to occur.

Key factors

Several structural factors bear on where Felix's FDV lands at the one-day mark. Market sentiment towards DeFi tokens at the time of launch will influence initial pricing, as will broader crypto market conditions and the performance of comparable recent launches. The size and distribution of the initial token float affects price discovery: a smaller circulating supply relative to total supply can produce higher per-token prices, amplifying FDV figures without reflecting equivalent liquidity depth. Tokenomics design — including vesting schedules, airdrop sizes, and any locked allocations — directly feeds into the total supply denominator used in FDV calculation. Launch timing matters too: a token released during a risk-off period or following negative project-specific news may see suppressed initial pricing. Exchange listings and the depth of liquidity on those venues at the 24-hour mark will determine which price source is deemed most liquid for resolution purposes. If the launch is delayed past 31 December 2026, all brackets resolve No regardless of any subsequent launch.

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