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Grok 4.6 released on...?

Grok 4.6 released on...?

Resolves Aug 31, 2026·$546 24h vol·tech
$546 total volume

August 11 or earlier

46%-4.0%
OutcomeYesNo
August 11 or earlier
August 12
August 13
August 14
August 18
August 17
August 25
Not released by August 31
August 19
August 27

Order Book

August 11 or earlier

PriceSharesTotal
99.0¢48$48
98.0¢6$6
96.0¢29$28
95.0¢6$6
90.0¢41$37
89.0¢7$7
88.0¢50$44
50.0¢last trade
85.0¢ spread
3.0¢240$7
2.0¢7$0
1.0¢12$0
$7 bids$175 asks

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public. Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market). Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

August 11 or earlier

46%