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How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in November?

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in November?

Resolves Dec 1, 2026·$597 24h vol·economy
$597 total volume

Below 5.20%

52%+1.5%
OutcomeYesNo
Below 5.20%
Below 4.99%
Below 5.02%
Below 5.05%
Below 5.17%
Below 5.11%
Below 5.08%
Below 5.14%
Below 4.96%

Order Book

Below 5.20%

PriceSharesTotal
99.0¢291$288
98.0¢171$168
97.0¢16$16
90.0¢21$19
62.0¢40$25
60.0¢20$12
59.0¢20$12
57.0¢20$11
50.0¢last trade
13.0¢ spread
44.0¢20$9
14.0¢20$3
6.0¢5$0
3.0¢11$0
2.0¢171$3
1.0¢293$3
$19 bids$550 asks

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 3, 2026 and November 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of November 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of November 2026 by December 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Below 5.20%

51%